Stay Informed

(Indianapolis) – Nov. 14, 2025 – After the longest government shutdown in history, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a long-awaited World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report earlier today.

The November report provides a needed update on the size of the 2025 crops, as well as export projections. Indiana Farm Bureau’s Chief Economist Dr. Todd Davis published his analysis on the data saying, “This has not been a normal marketing year, so these reports have huge impacts on markets and the decisions farmers are making.”

According to Davis, the corn crop nationally is about 12% larger than last year which will end up being a record at 16.75 billion bushels. For Indiana, although the corn yield will be record-setting, the size of the crop is expected to be right on par with September predictions.

“Corn’s problem is that demand is not going to keep pace with supply, but export projections for corn have been a bright star,” said Davis. “The 2025 export estimates will be even larger at 8% over 2024 numbers.”

For soybeans, USDA projects soybeans to have a record yield nationally, while Indiana’s soybean yield will remain about the same as the 2024 crop.

“The focus in the soybean market has obviously been on exports because of the back and forth with China,” added Davis. “The USDA actually reduced its export estimates from September based on China's purchases from South America. The USDA, as a matter of practice, does not anticipate policy or policy effects. Instead, they wait for data that supports increasing the estimated export use.”

Ultimately, Davis advises farmers to continue managing working capital and debt.

He said, “The updated price projections do not ease the profitability and liquidity concerns of farmers. Before the government shutdown, the USDA discussed sending direct payments to farmers to serve as a bridge, helping them secure inputs and plan for the 2026 crops. The November report reinforces the need for those payments.”

Read Dr. Davis’s full insights here.

The WASDE report is released monthly and provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton. For more information about the report process and data, visit the USDA’s publications page.

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About Indiana Farm Bureau: For more than 100 years, Indiana Farm Bureau (INFB) has protected and enhanced the future of agriculture and our communities. As the state’s largest general farm organization, INFB works diligently to cultivate a thriving agricultural ecosystem to strengthen the viability of Indiana agriculture. Learn more at INFB.org.