The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the first survey of farmers' planting intentions for 2025 crops on March 31. According to Dr. Todd Davis, Indiana Farm Bureau’s chief economist, there were some surprises.

Analysts surveyed before the Prospective Plantings Report's release expected farmers to plant 94.2 million corn acres and 83.8 million soybean acres this year, Davis said. However, Davis noted that the 2025 U.S. corn planted area is projected to increase by 4.7 million acres (+5.2%) from 2024, 1.1 million acres above the market’s expectation.

Conversely, USDA projects the 2025 U.S. soybean area will decrease by 3.55 million acres (-4.1%) to 83.5 million acres, which is near the market's expectation.

Farmers in the top five producing corn states of Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana all plan to increase corn area in 2025, with about 43% of the total acreage increase occurring in these top-producing states.

Indiana farmers intend to plant 5.4 million corn acres, up 3.8% from last year. However, Davis said, USDA projects Indiana soybean acres to be reduced by 1.7% to 5.7 million acres for 2025.

Among Davis’ other findings:

• The report is somewhat bearish for the corn market as an increase in corn area could increase corn stocks from 2024. Conversely, the report is somewhat bullish for soybeans as a reduction in the soybean area could reduce ending stocks from 2024. 
• The March 31 Grain Stocks survey suggests corn stocks are tighter now than in March 2024, which is positive for the corn market. However, soybean stocks have increased from the same period in 2024, which is negative news. 
• Trade uncertainty with China will be a headwind for price potential until any uncertainty is resolved.

“Mother Nature has the final say on the 2025 planted area; however, everyone will have to wait for the June 30 acreage report for an update on the potential size of the 2025 corn and soybean crops,” he concluded.